The COVID-19 pandemic: model-based evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and prognoses.

ABSTRACT: An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick, seriously sick, and better. The model was preliminarily parameterized based on observations of the spread of the disease. The model assumes a case mortality rate of 1.5%. Preliminary simulations with the model indicate that concepts such as "herd immunity" and containment ("flattening the curve") are highly misleading in the context of this virus. Public policies based on these concepts are inadequate to protect the population. Only reducing the R ₀ of the virus below 1 is an effective strategy for maintaining the death burden of COVID-19 w

SUBMITTER: De Visscher A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7416305 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature