Importations of COVID-19 into African countries and risk of onward spread.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019 has caused widespread transmission around the world. As new epicentres in Europe and America have arisen, of particular concern is the increased number of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Africa, where the impact of the pandemic could be more severe. We aim to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases imported from 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to each African country, as well as the probability of reaching 10,000 cases in total by the end of March, April, May, and June following viral introduction.

Methods

We used the reported number of cases imported from the 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to Singapore, as well as flight data, to estimate

SUBMITTER: Sun H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7424562 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature