Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, R, has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major chal

SUBMITTER: Keeling MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7430615 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature