The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To contain the spread of COVID-19, a cordon sanitaire was put in place in Wuhan prior to the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2020. We assess the efficacy of the cordon sanitaire to delay the introduction and onset of local transmission of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China.

Methods

We estimated the number of infected travellers from Wuhan to other major cities in mainland China from November 2019 to February 2020 using previously estimated COVID-19 prevalence in Wuhan and publicly available mobility data. We focused on Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as four representative major cities to identify the potential independent contribution of the cordon sanitaire and holiday travel. To do this, we simulated outbreaks generated by infected arriva

SUBMITTER: Quilty BJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7437104 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature