Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India.

ABSTRACT: The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported to be imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown there is a great variation in the SRB between geographic locations across India till 2016. Considering the enormous population and regional heterogeneity of India, producing probabilistic SRB projections at the state level is crucial for policy planning and population projection. In this paper, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project the SRB across India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results for 21 States/UTs with data available from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-

SUBMITTER: Chao F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7446920 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature