Modeling return of the epidemic: Impact of population structure, asymptomatic infection, case importation and personal contacts.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Proactive interventions have halted the pandemic of coronavirus infected disease in some regions. However, without reaching herd immunity, the return of epidemic is possible. We investigate the impact of population structure, case importation, asymptomatic cases, and the number of contacts on a possible second wave of epidemic through mathematical modeling.

Methods

we built a modified Susceptible-exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model with parameters mirroring those of the COVID-19 pandemic and reported simulated characteristics of epidemics for incidence, hospitalizations and deaths under different scenarios.

Results

A larger percent of elderly people leads to higher number of hospitalizations, while a large percent of prior infection will effectively cur

SUBMITTER: Yu X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7449940 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep - Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature