Contribution of high risk groups' unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) of unmet prevention and treatment needs within risk groups. However, evidence suggests that STI risk is dynamic over an individual's sexual life course, which manifests as turnover between risk groups. We sought to examine the mechanisms by which turnover influences modelled projections of the tPAF of high risk groups.

Methods

We developed a unifying, data-guided framework to simulate risk group turnover in deterministic, compartmental transmission models. We applied the framework to an illustrative model of an STI and examined the mechanisms by which

SUBMITTER: Knight J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7452422 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature