Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016.

ABSTRACT: Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calci

SUBMITTER: Gubbins S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7456782 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature