Mathematical models for devising the optimal SARS-CoV-2 strategy for eradication in China, South Korea, and Italy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention.

Methods

To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies.

Results

Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission number, R₀, of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy.

SUBMITTER: Jiang S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7474336 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature