Multi-model forecasts of the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, March-October 2019.

ABSTRACT: The 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the first to occur in an armed conflict zone. The resulting impact on population movement, treatment centres and surveillance has created an unprecedented challenge for real-time epidemic forecasting. Most standard mathematical models cannot capture the observed incidence trajectory when it deviates from a traditional epidemic logistic curve. We fit seven dynamic models of increasing complexity to the incidence data published in the World Health Organization Situation Reports, after adjusting for reporting delays. These models include a simple logistic model, a Richards model, an endemic Richards model, a double logistic growth model, a multi-model approach and two sub-epidemic models. We analyse model fit to the data

SUBMITTER: Roosa K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7482568 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature