Monthly drought prediction based on ensemble models.

ABSTRACT: Drought is a natural hazard, which is a result of a prolonged shortage of precipitation, high temperature and change in the weather pattern. Drought harms society, the economy and the natural environment, but it is difficult to identify and characterize. Many areas of Pakistan have suffered severe droughts during the last three decades due to changes in the weather pattern. A drought analysis with the incorporation of climate information has not yet been undertaken in this study region. Here, we propose an ensemble approach for monthly drought prediction and to define and examine wet/dry events. Initially, the drought events were identified by the short term Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3). Drought is predicted based on three ensemble models i.e., Equal Ensemble Drought Prediction

SUBMITTER: Shaukat MH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7485508 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature