Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures.

Methods

The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP an

SUBMITTER: Goryakin Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7485835 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature