Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

ABSTRACT: By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number of unobserved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections during its initial invasion of the United States remains unknown. We developed an approach for estimating the number of unobserved infections based on data that are commonly available shortly after the emergence of a new infectious disease. The logic of our approach is, in essence, that there are bounds on the amount of exponential growth of new infections that can occur during the first few weeks after imported cases start appearing. Applying that logic to data on imported cases and local deaths in the United States through 12 Ma

SUBMITTER: Perkins TA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7486725 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature