Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy.

Methods

From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbe

SUBMITTER: Marois G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7498023 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature