Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends.

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20-30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyl

SUBMITTER: Schlunegger S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7507776 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature