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Risk factors for prolonged viral clearance in adult patients with COVID-19 in Beijing, China: A prospective observational study.

ABSTRACT: Clearance of COVID-19 from the human body has not been established. Our study collected the laboratory test results from patients and analyzed the correlation between early changes in serum indices and the virus clearance by univariable and multivariable COX regression models, with an aim to explore the risk factors for prolonged viral clearance. The study included 61 patients with COVID-19 treated at the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital in Beijing from 20 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. We set the total observation of the disease course to 20 days and the patients were divided into two groups (prolonged group, > 20d vs. normal group, ≤ 20d). The 48 patients with COVID-19 included in this study, 13 remained positive for viral nucleic acid monitoring 20 days after onset. The median for virus clearance was 16 days (range, 6-35 days). The results showed that hypertension, a lactate dehydrogenase level > 211.5 U/L, an interleukin 6 (IL-6) level > 12.5 pg/ml, and a NK lymphocyte percentage > 0.5% were associated with prolonged viral clearance. Therefore, we showed that a history of hypertension, an elevated IL-6 level, and an elevated percentage of NK cells were risk factors for prolonged viral clearance.

SUBMITTER: Xue J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7510442 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors for prolonged viral clearance in adult patients with COVID-19 in Beijing, China: A prospective observational study.

Xue Jian J Zheng Jing J Shang Xueyi X Qin Enqiang E Zhao Peng P He Yuan Y Liu Mengyang M Zhang Jin J Liu Huiying H Bai Changqing C

International immunopharmacology 20200923 Pt A

Clearance of COVID-19 from the human body has not been established. Our study collected the laboratory test results from patients and analyzed the correlation between early changes in serum indices and the virus clearance by univariable and multivariable COX regression models, with an aim to explore the risk factors for prolonged viral clearance. The study included 61 patients with COVID-19 treated at the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital in Beijing from 20 January 2020 to 20 February ...[more]

PMID: 33039964

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Project description:SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals ≥60 years old have the highest hospitalization rates and represent >80% fatalities. Within this population, those in long-term facilities represent >50% of the total COVID-19 related deaths per country. Among those without symptoms, the rate of pre-symptomatic illness is unclear, and potential predictors of progression for symptom development are unknown. Our objective was to delineate the natural evolution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in elders and identify determinants of progression. We established a medical surveillance team monitoring 63 geriatric institutions. When an index COVID-19 case emerged, we tested all other eligible asymptomatic elders ≥75 or >60 years old with at least 1 comorbidity. SARS-CoV-2 infected elders were followed for 28 days. Disease was diagnosed when any COVID-19 manifestation occurred. SARS-CoV-2 load at enrollment, shedding on day 15, and antibody responses were also studied. After 28 days of follow-up, 74/113(65%) SARS-CoV-2-infected elders remained asymptomatic. 21/39(54%) pre-symptomatic patients developed hypoxemia and ten pre-symptomatic patients died(median day 13.5,IQR 12). Dementia was the only clinical risk factor associated with disease(OR 2.41(95%CI=1.08, 5.39). In a multivariable logistic regression model, dementia remained as a risk factor for COVID-19 severe disease. Furthermore, dementia status showed a statistically significant different trend when assessing the cumulative probability of developing COVID-19 symptoms(log-rank p=0.027). On day 15, SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 30% of the asymptomatic group while in 61% of the pre-symptomatic(p=0.012). No differences were observed among groups in RT-PCR mean cycle threshold at enrollment(p=0.391) and in the rates of antibody seropositivity(IgM and IgG against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein). In summary, 2/3 of our cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected elders from vulnerable communities in Argentina remained asymptomatic after 28 days of follow-up with high mortality among those developing symptoms. Dementia and persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding were associated with progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic infection.

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Risk factors for prolonged viral clearance in adult patients with COVID-19 in Beijing, China: A prospective observational study.

Publications

Risk factors for prolonged viral clearance in adult patients with COVID-19 in Beijing, China: A prospective observational study.

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