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The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI.

ABSTRACT: The H1N1 "Spanish influenza" pandemic of 1918-1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temperatures increased casualties in the battlefields of World War I (WWI), setting the stage for the spread of the pandemic at the end of the conflict. Multiple independent records of temperature, precipitation, and mortality corroborate these findings.

SUBMITTER: More AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7513628 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI.

More Alexander F AF Loveluck Christopher P CP Clifford Heather H Handley Michael J MJ Korotkikh Elena V EV Kurbatov Andrei V AV McCormick Michael M Mayewski Paul A PA

GeoHealth 20200901 9

The H1N1 "Spanish influenza" pandemic of 1918-1919 caused the highest known number of deaths recorded for a single pandemic in human history. Several theories have been offered to explain the virulence and spread of the disease, but the environmental context remains underexamined. In this study, we present a new environmental record from a European, Alpine ice core, showing a significant climate anomaly that affected the continent from 1914 to 1919. Incessant torrential rain and declining temper ...[more]

PMID: 33005839

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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic and the political and health measures have profoundly affected the health of our populations. However, very few studies have been published assessing its impact using a prospective cohort. The aim of this study is to describe the impact on physical and mental health due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population in Spain, and according to COVID-19 clinical status, during the first year of the pandemic. A longitudinal cohort study with two online surveys were performed on a representative sample of the adult Spanish population before (N = 2005, October/November 2019) and during the pandemic (N = 1357, November/December 2020). We assessed disability using the World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS), major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STB), using an adapted version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0); generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) using the GAD-7 scale; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using the PTSD checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). For physical health, there was a statistically significant loss of weight (mean/SD) (T0, 73.22/15.56 vs. T1, 71.21/11.94), less use of tobacco (T0, 11.4% vs. T1, 9.0%) and decreased disability (mean/SD) (T0, 21.52/9.22 vs. T1, 19.03/7.32). For mental health, there was a significant increase in MDE (T0, 6.5% vs. T1, 8.8%) and in the prevalence of GAD (T0, 13.7% vs. T1, 17.7%). The prevalence of STB (T0, 15.1% vs. T1, 7.1%) significantly decreased. Individuals who declared they had been diagnosed with COVID-19 (3.6%) showed a worsening in physical health and an increase in mental health problems and PTSD symptoms. Although suicide risk during the first year of the pandemic was significantly less, many suicide risk factors increased: such as the incidence and persistence of MDE and GAD, the presence of PTSD symptoms in those diagnosed with COVID-19, and a worsening in self-assessed health status. We expect an increase in STB in the population in the long-term. Future research should gather information about the long-term impact of the pandemic.

Project description:Which are the effects of pandemics on the returns to factors of production? Are these effects persistent over time? These questions have received renewed interest after the out-burst of deaths caused by Covid-19. The Spanish Flu is the closest pandemic to Covid-19. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the Spanish Flu on the returns to labor and capital in Spain. Spain is an ideal country to perform this exercise. First, the "excess death rate" was one of the largest in Western Europe and it varied substantially across regions. Second, Spain was transitioning towards industrialization, with regions in different stages of development. Third, Spain was developed enough to have reliable data. We identify the effect of the Spanish Flu by exploiting within-country variation in "excess death rate". Our main result is that the effect of the Spanish Flu on daily real wages was large, negative, and broadly short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations and regions. The negative effects are exacerbated in (i) occupations producing non-essential goods like shoemakers and (ii) more urbanized provinces. Quantitatively, relative to pre-1918, the decline for the average region ranges from null to around 30 percent. In addition, we fail to find significant negative effects of the flu on returns to capital. Whereas the results for dividends are imprecisely estimated (we cannot reject a null effect), the effect on real estate prices (houses and land), driven by the post-1918 recovery, is positive. Experts on inequality have argued that pandemics have equalizing effects especially in a Malthusian setting, due to real wage increases. Our findings suggest that, at least, for a developing economy like Spain in the early 20th century, this result does not apply. Indeed, we document that the flu pandemic was conducive to a (short-run) reduction in real wages. In addition, we interpret our heterogeneous results as suggestive evidence that pandemics represent a demand shock.

Dataset Information

The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI.

Publications

The Impact of a Six-Year Climate Anomaly on the "Spanish Flu" Pandemic and WWI.

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