Dataset Information

Modified model for predicting early C-reactive protein levels after gastrointestinal surgery: A prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Postoperative serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) is one of the objective quantitative indices integrating the effects of preoperative and intraoperative variables. Higher levels of CRP after gastrointestinal surgery are associated with major postoperative complications. To develop a model for predicting CRP levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 in surgical patients both with and without serious conditions and comorbidities, we modified the previous formula for prediction of CRP levels on POD1, and assessed the accuracy of our modified predictive formula for CRP levels.

Material and methods

Consecutive patients of all ages undergoing gastrointestinal surgery under general anesthesia were enrolled in this single-institution prospective cohort study. We developed a modified predictive formula in a calculation cohort. Next, associations between measured CRP levels on POD1, predicted CRP levels on POD1 using the previous and modified models, and major complications after surgery were examined in a validation cohort.

Results

We obtained the following model in the calculation cohort (n = 222): Modified model for predicting CRP levels on POD1 (mg•dL-1) = -10.13 + 0.0025 Duration of surgery (min) + 15.9 Mean Nociceptive Response (NR) + 0.66 Preoperative CRP level (mg•dL-1). In the validation cohort (n = 440), there was a significant association between measured and predicted CRP levels on POD1 (P < 0.001) No significant difference between the measured and predicted CRP levels using the modified model was observed (P = 0.847). There were also significant associations between the predicted CRP levels and major complications after surgery.

Conclusion

CRP levels predicted using duration of surgery, mean NR, and preoperative CRP levels are likely identical to measured CRP levels on POD1, being associated with major complications after gastrointestinal surgery.

SUBMITTER: Kawasaki Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7514002 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modified model for predicting early C-reactive protein levels after gastrointestinal surgery: A prospective cohort study.

Kawasaki Yui Y Park Soonhee S Miyamoto Kazunori K Ueki Ryusuke R Kariya Nobutaka N Tatara Tsuneo T Hirose Munetaka M

PloS one 20200924 9

<h4>Background</h4>Postoperative serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) is one of the objective quantitative indices integrating the effects of preoperative and intraoperative variables. Higher levels of CRP after gastrointestinal surgery are associated with major postoperative complications. To develop a model for predicting CRP levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 in surgical patients both with and without serious conditions and comorbidities, we modified the previous formula for predi ...[more]

PMID: 32970767

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Project description:BackgroundMany assessment tools have been used to identify frail surgical patients. This study was designed to explore the prediction value of the frailty index (FI) for postoperative morbidity in older patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery.MethodsBetween January 2019 and September 2020, we conducted a prospective study in our hospital, and patients aged over 65 years were enrolled. The FI assessment was conducted by two specialist nurses based on the 38-item scale, and patients were considered frail if the FI score was ≥ 0.25. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative morbidity. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to find the risk factors related to postoperative morbidity.ResultsA total of 246 consecutive patients were enrolled, for whom the median age was 72.0 [interquartile range (IQR): 67.0-77.0] years old, and 175 (71.1%) were male. Of these, 47 (19.1%) were frail. Patients with frailty were associated with older age (p < 0.001), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (p = 0.006), lower body mass index (p = 0.001), lower albumin (p = 0.003) and haemoglobin (p < 0.001) levels, increased blood loss (p = 0.034), increased risk of postoperative morbidity (p < 0.001), increased median length of stay (p = 0.017), and increased median postoperative hospital stay (p = 0.003). Multivariable analysis revealed that ASA grade [odds ratio (OR): 2.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-5.64, p = 0.016], FI score (OR 7.68, 95% CI 3.19-18.48, p < 0.001) and surgical complexity (OR 22.83, 95% CI 5.46-95.51, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of 30-day postoperative morbidity. However, for patients with major surgery, FI score was the only independent predictor (OR 8.67, 95% CI 3.23-23.25, p < 0.001).ConclusionFrailty was associated with adverse perioperative outcomes, and the 38-item FI scale was a useful frailty screening tool for older patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery. For patients with major surgery, frailty was a more reliable predictor of postoperative 30-day morbidity than age and ASA grade.

Project description:BackgroundEarly detection of postoperative increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) correlates with postoperative complications. The present study examined the association between preoperative / intraoperative factors and postoperative CRP levels, with development and validation of a prediction model of early postoperative CRP level, for prophylactic management of postoperative complications in patients undergoing surgery under general anesthesia.Material and methodsMultivariate regression analysis was retrospectively performed to determine the independent factor of CRP levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 and to develop a prediction model. Validation of the prediction model was prospectively performed. Data from 316 adult patients on perioperative variables were retrospectively obtained in a training cohort in patients undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery. In a validation cohort, 88 patients undergoing mastectomy and 68 patients undergoing laparoscopic colon surgery were prospectively utilized to evaluate the value of the prediction model. Major complications after surgery were defined as the Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or greater.ResultsDuration of surgery, mean nociceptive response (NR) during surgery as intraoperative nociception level, and preoperative CRP level were selected to set up the prediction model of CRP level on POD1 (P < 0.0001). In the validation cohort, the predicted CRP levels on POD1 significantly correlated with the measured CRP after mastectomy (P < 0.0001) and laparoscopic colon surgery (P = 0.0001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the predicted CRP levels on POD1 was significantly associated with major complications after mastectomy (P = 0.0259) and laparoscopic colon surgery (P = 0.0049). The measured and predicted CRP levels significantly increased in the order of severity of postoperative complications (P < 0.01).ConclusionIncreases in duration of surgery, intraoperative nociceptive level and preoperative CRP level were selected to predict early increases in CRP level after non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Predicted CRP levels on POD1 were likely associated with severity of postoperative complications.

Project description:BackgroundChronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) affects half a million children annually in the United States, with dire socioeconomic consequences, including long-term disability into adulthood. The few studies of CPSP in children are limited by sample size, follow-up duration, non-homogeneity of surgical procedure and factors evaluated.MethodsIn a prospective study of 144 adolescents undergoing a single major surgery (spine fusion), we evaluated demographic, perioperative, surgical and psychosocial factors as predictors of a continuum of postsurgical pain: immediate, pain maintenance at 2-3 months (chronic pain/CP) and persistence of pain a year (persistent pain/PP) after surgery.ResultsWe found an incidence of 37.8% and 41.8% for CP and PP. CP and acute pain were both significant predictors for developing PP (p-value <0.001 and 0.003). Preoperative pain and higher postoperative opioid requirement was significantly associated with CP (p = 0.015, p = 0.002), while Childhood Anxiety Sensitivity Index (p = 0.002) and surgical duration (p = 0.014) predicted PP. The final regression models had reasonable predictive accuracy (c-statistic of 0.73 and 0.83 for CP and PP, respectively). Anxiety scores and catastrophizing for child and parent were found to be significantly correlated (p = 0.005, p = 0.013 respectively). Pain trajectories revealed that 65% of patients who developed PP reported CP and high pain trends; however, 33% of those who developed PP could not be identified using solely pain criteria.ConclusionPersistent postsurgical pain in children is a significant problem. It can be predicted in part by combinations of psychological and clinical variables, which may provide evidence-based measures to prevent development of CPSP in the future.SignificanceIn a homogeneous cohort of adolescents undergoing spine fusion, we report a high incidence of persistent postsurgical pain (41.8%) predicted by child anxiety, perioperative pain, and surgical duration. Our results stress timely preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Dataset Information

Modified model for predicting early C-reactive protein levels after gastrointestinal surgery: A prospective cohort study.

Background

Material and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Modified model for predicting early C-reactive protein levels after gastrointestinal surgery: A prospective cohort study.

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