The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics.

Methods

A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020.

Findings

The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4·6180 and behavior change rate was 2·6044. The model predicted the number of

SUBMITTER: Kim S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7514094 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature