Lockdown impact on COVID-19 epidemics in regions across metropolitan France.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cauchemez S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7524515 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Lockdown impact on COVID-19 epidemics in regions across metropolitan France.
Cauchemez Simon S Kiem Cécile Tran CT Paireau Juliette J Rolland Patrick P Fontanet Arnaud A
Lancet (London, England) 20200929 10257
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Project description:The COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. Using a mechanistic-statistical formalism, we estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number R e of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (R e = 0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of R e is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities.
| S-EPMC7290065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, other respiratory illnesses decreased worldwide. This study described the consequences of public health measures on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) severe infections in France, where an interseasonal resurgence of RSV occurred recently. All patients admitted to Necker Hospital (Paris) between August 2018 and April 2021 with a diagnosis of RSV-associated acute lung respiratory infection (ALRI) were enrolled. Characteristics of subjects with RSV-associated ALRI in 2020/2021 were compared to those infected during the two previous outbreaks. Overall, 664 inpatients were diagnosed with RSV-associated ALRI: 229, 183, and 252 during the 2018/2019, 2019/2020, and 2020/2021 outbreaks, respectively. During autumn 2020, a national lockdown began in France but schools remained open. A 3-month delayed RSV epidemic occurred at the end of this lockdown. Compared to previous outbreaks, the 2020/2021 epidemics involved more children aged 6 to 11 months (25.8% versus 13.1%, p < 0.0001), but less infants aged < 6 months (41.3% versus 56.6%, p < 0.0001) and less adults (0.0 versus 2.7%, p < 0.0001). Shorter length of stay at hospital, less frequent requirement of admission to intensive care unit, use of non-invasive ventilation, and/or high-flow nasal oxygen were observed in 2020/2021 than during previous epidemics (p < 0.0001). Delayed RSV outbreak was associated with more hospitalizations for ALRI, higher age of pediatric inpatients, but milder median clinical phenotype. Reinforced public health measures (even while keeping nurseries and schools open with mandatory face masks since six years of age) could impact, at least transiently, the burden of RSV-related hospitalizations.
| S-EPMC8331994 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMore than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.MethodsWe use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing.ResultsWe estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints.ConclusionsAs France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
| S-EPMC7391016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reshaped the usual risk: benefit equilibrium that became a trade-off between the infection exposure risk for the patient (and for staff) and the risk associated with delaying or cancelling the nuclear medicine examination. This study aimed at quantifying the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown in France on nuclear medicine examination volume together with volume of examination cancellation and non-attendance.MethodsWe retrospectively assessed the volume of planned examinations from 1 month before to 1 month after the first lockdown in French high-volume nuclear medicine departments (NMD) sharing the same information management system including both university hospitals, UH (n = 7), and cancer centres, CC (n = 2).ResultsThe study enrolled 31,628 consecutive patients referred for a nuclear medicine examination performed or not (NMEP or NMEnP). The total volume of NMEP significantly dropped by 43.4% between the 4 weeks before and after the starting of the lockdown. The comparison of the percentage of NMEP and NMEnP between UH and CC is significantly different (p < 0.001). The percentage of NMEP during the study was 67.9% in UH vs 84.7% in CC. Percentages of NMEnP in UH and CC were due respectively to cancellation by the patient (14.9 vs 7.4%), cancellation by the NMD (9.5 vs 3.4%), cancellation by the referring physician (5.1 vs 4.4%) and non-attender patients (2.7 vs 0.2%).ConclusionThe study underlines the public health issue caused by COVID-19 above the pandemic itself and should be useful in preparing for potential resource utilisation and staffing requirements.
| S-EPMC8224993 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe health crisis linked to the COVID-19 epidemic has required lockdown measures in France and changes in practices in dialysis centers. The objective was to assess the depressive and anxiety symptoms during lockdown in hemodialysis patients and their caregivers.MethodsWe sent, during lockdown period, between April and May 2020, self-questionnaires to voluntary subjects (patients and caregivers), treated by hemodialysis or who worked in hemodialysis in one of the 14 participating centers in France. We analyzed their perception of dialysis sessions (beneficial or worrying), their stress level (VAS rated from 0 to 10), their anxiety and depressive symptoms (Hospital anxiety and depression scale). Factors associated with stress, anxiety and depression were analyzed with multiple linear regression models.Results669 patients and 325 caregivers agreed to participate. 70 % of participants found it beneficial to come to dialysis during confinement. The proportions of subjects with a stress level ≥ 6 linked to the epidemic, confinement, fear of contracting COVID-19 and fear of infecting a loved one were respectively 23.9%, 26.2%, 33.4% and 42%. 39.2% presented with certain (13.7%) or doubtful (19.2%) anxious symptoms. 21.2% presented a certain (7.9%) or doubtful (13.3%) depressive symptomatology. Age, gender, history of psychological disorders and perception of dialysis sessions were associated with levels of stress, anxiety and depression.ConclusionDuring the lockdown period, in France, the majority of hemodialysis patients and caregivers found it beneficial to come to dialysis. One in three subjects had anxiety symptoms and one in five subjects had depressive symptoms.
| S-EPMC8141903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We performed an online survey to assess lockdown impact in 176 patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) in the north of France. Access to healthcare was reduced for 38% of PwMS, mainly in physiotherapy, general practitioners and neurologists. 49.2% have implemented self-rehabilitation programs. Medical support was maintained for 39.2% through teleconsultations. 76.2% reported a negative impact of lockdown related to worsen disability. 45.5% expressed beneficial effects like strengthening family relationships, and reduced fatigue. Previous studies have found the same results on disability and discontinuation of care. However, even if this period has been challenging for PwMS, most of them have shown excellent adaptability.
| S-EPMC8433045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, restrictive sanitary measures such as lockdowns have been implemented all around the world. Based on a representative sample of the population collected through an online cross-sectional survey, the goal of the study was to investigate the factors associated with lockdown agreement in France during the second general lockdown of fall 2020. More specifically, we aimed to investigate how trust in the government and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs influenced lockdown agreement. Trust in the authorities and low adherence to conspiracy beliefs appeared as strong predictors of lockdown acceptance among our sample. Using a mediation analysis, we highlighted a significant indirect effect of trust in the authorities on lockdown agreement through the adherence to conspiracy beliefs: low level of trust translated into higher odds to believe in COVID-19 misinformation which in turn decreased lockdown support. The double effect of trust on lockdown agreement, both directly and indirectly, underlines the importance of careful communication from the government around decisions related to COVID-19 mitigation measures in order not to deteriorate even more the low level of trust in the health action of the government. The fight against false information also appears of the utmost importance to increase the population adherence to public authorities' recommendations.
| S-EPMC9472707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Meteorology and long-term trends in air pollutant concentrations may obscure the results from short-term policies implemented to improve air quality. This study presents changes in CO, NO2, O3, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 based on their anomalies during the COVID-19 partial (Phase 2) and total (Phase 3) lockdowns in Mexico City (MCMA). To minimise the impact of the air pollutant long-term trends, pollutant anomalies were calculated using as baseline truncated Fourier series, fitted with data from 2016 to 2019, and then compared with those from the lockdown. Additionally, days with stagnant conditions and heavy rain were excluded to reduce the impact of extreme weather changes. Satellite observations for NO2 and CO were used to contrast the ground-based derived results. During the lockdown Phase 2, only NO2 exhibited significant decreases (p < 0.05) of between 10 and 23% due to reductions in motor vehicle emissions. By contrast, O3 increased (p < 0.05) between 16 and 40% at the same sites where NO2 decreased. During Phase 3, significant decreases (p < 0.05) were observed for NO2 (43%), PM10 (20%), and PM2.5 (32%) in response to the total lockdown. Although O3 concentrations were lower in Phase 3 than during Phase 2, those did not decrease (p < 0.05) from the baseline at any site despite the total lockdown. SO2 decreased only during Phase 3 in a near-road environment. Satellite observations confirmed that NO2 decreased and CO stabilised during the total lockdown. Air pollutant changes during the lockdown could be overestimated between 2 and 10-fold without accounting for the influences of meteorology and long-term trends in pollutant concentrations. Air quality improved significantly during the lockdown driven by reduced NO2 and PM2.5 emissions despite increases in O3, resulting in health benefits for the MCMA population. A health assessment conducted suggested that around 588 deaths related to air pollution exposure were averted during the lockdown. Our results show that to reduce O3 within the MCMA, policies must focus on reducing VOCs emissions from non-mobile sources. The measures implemented during the COVID-19 lockdowns provide valuable information to reduce air pollution through a range of abatement strategies for emissions other than from motor vehicles.
| S-EPMC8026884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The real-time Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, and Xylenes (BTEX) concentrations were measured in a metropolitan city of India during January to May of 2020 and 2014-2015-2018 to assess the impact of emission reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. The total BTEX (∑BTEX) concentrations were 11.5 ± 9.0, 15.7 ± 16, 5.3 ± 5.0, 2.9 ± 2.0, and 0.93 ± 1.2 ppbv in January-May 2020, respectively. The evening rush hour peaks of BTEX during lockdown decreased by 4-5 times from the same period of years 2014-2015-2018. A significant decline in background concentrations suggests a regional-scale reduction in anthropogenic emissions. The contributions of ∑TEX compounds to ∑BTEX increased from 42% to 59% in winter to 64%-75% during the lockdown under hot summer conditions. While emission reductions dominated during the lockdown period, the meteorological and photochemical factors may also have contributed. Meteorological influence on actual observed BTEX data was removed by normalizing with ventilation coefficient (VC). The actual ambient air reductions of 85%-90% and VC-normalized reductions of 54%-88% of the BTEX concentrations during lockdown were estimated compared to those during the same period of 2014-2015-2018. The estimated changes using nighttime data, which take into account BTEX photooxidation removal, are ∼8% lower than the VC-normalized estimates using all data. These significant reductions in BTEX concentrations are consistent with the change in people's movement as inferred from mobility data during the lockdown. Although enforced, the significant decline in ambient BTEX levels during lockdown was a good change for the air quality. The study suggests a need for more effective science-based policies that consider local and regional factors.
| S-EPMC9111284 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo fight the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown has been decreed in many countries worldwide. The impact of pregnancy as a severity risk factor is still debated, but strict lockdown measures have been recommended for pregnant women.ObjectivesTo evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on the seroprevalence and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in a maternity ward in an area that has been significantly affected by the virus.Study designProspective study at the Antoine Béclère Hospital maternity ward (Paris area, France) from May 4 (one week before the end of lockdown) to May 31, 2020 (three weeks after the end of lockdown). All patients admitted to the delivery room during this period were offered a SARS-CoV-2 serology test as well concomitant SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on one nasopharyngeal sample.ResultsA total of 249 women were included. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 8%. The RT-PCR positive rate was 0.5%. 47.4% of the SARS-CoV-2-IgG-positive pregnant women never experienced any symptoms. A history of symptoms during the epidemic, such as fever (15.8%), myalgia (36.8%) and anosmia (31.6%), was suggestive of previous infection.ConclusionsThree weeks after the end of French lockdown, SARS-CoV-2 infections were scarce in our region. A very high proportion of SARS-CoV-2-IgG-negative pregnant women, which is comparable to that of the general population, must be taken into consideration in the event of a resurgence of the pandemic. The traces of a past active circulation of the virus in this fragile population during the spring wave should encourage public health authorities to take specific measures for this independent at-risk group, in order to reduce viral circulation in pregnant patients.
| S-EPMC7561105 | biostudies-literature