Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve.

ABSTRACT: In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, "counties"). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces coun

SUBMITTER: Karatayev VA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7533690 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature