Transient indicators of tipping points in infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: The majority of known early warning indicators of critical transitions rely on asymptotic resilience and critical slowing down. In continuous systems, critical slowing down is mathematically described by a decrease in magnitude of the dominant eigenvalue of the Jacobian matrix on the approach to a critical transition. Here, we show that measures of transient dynamics, specifically, reactivity and the maximum of the amplification envelope, also change systematically as a bifurcation is approached in an important class of models for epidemics of infectious diseases. Furthermore, we introduce indicators designed to detect trends in these measures and find that they reliably classify time series of case notifications simulated from stochastic models according to levels of vaccine uptake. Great

SUBMITTER: O'Regan SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536043 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature