Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom.

Design

Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London's individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic.

Setting

Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Population

About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours.

Main outcome measures

Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a

SUBMITTER: Rice K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536648 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature