Wrong person, place and time: viral load and contact network structure predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during the pre-symptomatic phase of infection. Moreover, in contrast to influenza, while most SARS-CoV-2 infected people do not transmit the virus to anybody, a small percentage secondarily infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza which link observed viral shedding patterns with key epidemiologic features of each virus, including distributions of the number of secondary cases attributed to each infected person (individual R0) and the duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person (serial interval). We identify that people with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections are usually contagious for fewer than one day congruent with peak viral load s

SUBMITTER: Goyal A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536880 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature