The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic: simulation-based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies.

ABSTRACT: It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019-15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing-capacity expansion and social-contac

SUBMITTER: Struben J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7537277 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul-Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature