Using epidemic simulators for monitoring an ongoing epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Prediction of infection trends, estimating the efficacy of contact tracing, testing or impact of influx of infected are of vital importance for administration during an ongoing epidemic. Most effective methods currently are empirical in nature and their relation to parameters of interest to administrators are not evident. We thus propose a modified SEIRD model that is capable of modeling effect of interventions and inward migrations on the progress of an epidemic. The tunable parameters of this model bear relevance to monitoring of an epidemic. This model was used to show that some of the commonly seen features of cumulative infections in real data can be explained by piecewise constant changes in interventions and population influx. We also show that the data of cumulative infections from

SUBMITTER: Raghavan M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7538994 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature