A Meta-Population Model of Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission, Clinical Manifestation, and Detection Within U.S. Beef Feedlots.

ABSTRACT: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, th

SUBMITTER: Cabezas AH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7543087 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature