First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.

Methods

We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution.

Results

A total of 101,739 infect

SUBMITTER: Megna R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7544517 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature