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Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity. METHODS:We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. A common time series regression model was applied to quantify the association between rainfall and HFMD for each of the 143 cities. Then, we adopted the meta-regression model to pool the city-specific estimates and explore the sources of heterogeneity by incorporating city-specific characteristics. RESULTS:The overall pooled estimation suggested a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between rainfall and HFMD. Once rainfall exceeded 15?mm, the HFMD risk stopped increasing linearly and began to plateau with the excessive risk ratio (ERR) peaking at 21?mm of rainfall (ERR?=?3.46, 95% CI: 2.05, 4.88). We also found significant heterogeneity in the rainfall-HFMD relationships (I2 =?52.75%, P

SUBMITTER: Yang F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7545871 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China.

Yang Fan F Ma Yue Y Liu Fengfeng F Zhao Xing X Fan Chaonan C Hu Yifan Y Hu Kuiru K Chang Zhaorui Z Xiao Xiong X

BMC public health 20201009 1

<h4>Background</h4>Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. A common time ...[more]

PMID: 33036602

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Project description:BackgroundThere have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale.MethodsHFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk.ResultsResults showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China.ConclusionsThe autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD occurrences were found to be spatially heterogeneous over the Mainland China, which is related to both the climate and socio-economic variables. The combination of socio-economic and climate exposures can explain the HFMD occurrences more comprehensively and objectively than those with only climate exposures. The modeled probability of HFMD occurrence at the county level reveals not only the spatial trends, but also the local details of epidemic risk, even in the regions where there were no HFMD case records.

Project description:BackgroundSevere hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a life-threatening contagious disease among young children and infants. Although enterovirus A71 has been well acknowledged to be the dominant cause of severe HFMD, there still remain other unidentified risk factors for severe HFMD. Previous studies mainly focused on identifying the individual-level risk factors from a clinical perspective, while rare studies aimed to clarify the association between regional-level risk factors and severe HFMD, which may be more important from a public health perspective.MethodsWe retrieved the clinical HFMD counts between 2008 and 2014 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which were used to calculated the case-severity rate in 143 prefectural-level cities in mainland China. For each of those 143 cities, we further obtained city-specific characteristics from the China City Statistical Yearbook (social and economic variables) and the national meteorological monitoring system (meteorological variables). A Poisson regression model was then used to estimate the associations between city-specific characteristics (reduced by the principal component analysis to avoid multicollinearity) and the case-severity rate of HFMD. The above analysis was further stratified by age and gender to examine potential modifying effects and vulnerable sub-populations.ResultsWe found that the case-severity rate of HFMD varied dramatically between cities, ranging from 0 to 8.09%. Cities with high case-severity rates were mainly clustered in Central China. By relating the case-severity rate to city-specific characteristics, we found that both the principal component characterized by a high level of social and economic development (RR = 0.823, 95%CI 0.739, 0.916) and another that characterized by warm and humid climate (RR = 0.771, 95%CI 0.619, 0.960) were negatively associated with the case-severity rate of HFMD. These estimations were consistent across age and gender sub-populations.ConclusionExcept for the type of infected pathogen, the case-severity rate of HFMD was closely related to city development and meteorological factor. These findings suggest that social and environmental factors may also play an important role in the progress of severe HFMD.

Project description:PurposeThe childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) sequelae cohort study (HNHFMDCS) is an ambispective cohort study of patients with HFMD based in Henan Province, China, consisting of patients treated in a key hospital for the diagnosis and treatment of HFMD in Henan Province. The study aims to investigate the long-term sequelae of HFMD survivors and to provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential harm caused by this infectious disease.ParticipantsIn the retrospective phase of the cohort study, children diagnosed with HFMD from January 2014 to January 2023 were included, and clinical and demographic information about the patients was collected through a self-developed questionnaire. Patients hospitalised with HFMD since January 2023 were enrolled in the prospective cohort phase of the study, and long-term follow-up will be performed after completion of the baseline investigation (interview and comprehensive physical examination), clinical laboratory examination and biospecimen collection.Findings to dateFor the retrospective analysis of the cohort, a total of 18 705 HFMD cases (11 834 males and 6871 females) were observed between 2014 and 2022, of which 17 202 were mild cases (10 839 males and 6363 females) and 1503 were severe cases (995 males and 508 females). Statistical analysis was performed on the collected clinical examination data, and descriptive statistical methods, including mean value, SD and t-test, were used to compare the intergroup data. All tests were bilateral, and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. There were significant differences in the hospitalisation duration and clinical examination indicators, such as platelets (PLT), C reactive protein (CRP), aspartate amino transferase (AST), alanine amino transferase (ALT), T lymphocyte subsets (CD3+ and CD3+CD4+) and B lymphocytes (CD19+) between mild and severe patients. The differences in these clinical examination indicators also help to detect changes in the disease in time so as to deeply understand the potential harm and social burden of the disease, and provide strong support for the rehabilitation of patients.Future plansProspective cohort studies are currently underway, primarily enrolling hospitalised patients with HFMD to participate in our study. After the baseline investigation is completed, we will conduct long-term follow-up of the enrolled cases. In the coming year, we expect to obtain preliminary data on the incidence of sequelae in patients with HFMD 1-10 years after discharge, as well as information on the occurrence of sequelae. This dataset will be updated and expanded on an annual basis to support the continuous monitoring of patient health and disease progression. From HNHFMDCS, the study will provide a comprehensive overview of the potential harm caused by this common infectious disease, assess the social burden caused by this disease and make recommendations for the rehabilitation of survivors and prevention of further disability.

Dataset Information

Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China.

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Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China.

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