A single holiday was the turning point of the COVID-19 policy of Israel.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Despite an initial success, Israel's quarantine-isolation COVID-19 policy has abruptly collapsed. This study's aim is to identify the causes that led to this exponential rise in the accumulation of confirmed cases.

Methods

Epidemiological investigation reports were used to reconstruct chains of transmission as well as assess the net contribution of local infections relative to imported cases, infected travelers arriving from abroad. A mathematical model was implemented in order to describe the efficiency of the quarantine-isolation policy and the inflow of imported cases. The model's simulations included two scenarios for the actual time series of the symptomatic cases, providing insights into the conditions that lead to the abrupt change.

Results

The abrup

SUBMITTER: Klausner Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7547000 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature