Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates.

ABSTRACT: Compartmental epidemic models have been used extensively to study the historical spread of infectious diseases and to inform strategies for future control. A critical parameter of any such model is the transmission rate. Temporal variation in the transmission rate has a profound influence on disease spread. For this reason, estimation of time-varying transmission rates is an important step in identifying mechanisms that underlie patterns in observed disease incidence and mortality. Here, we present and test fast methods for reconstructing transmission rates from time series of reported incidence. Using simulated data, we quantify the sensitivity of these methods to parameters of the data-generating process and to mis-specification of input parameters by the user. We show that sensitivity t

SUBMITTER: Jagan M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7549798 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature