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Identifying novel factors associated with COVID-19 transmission and fatality using the machine learning approach.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 virus has infected more than 38 million people and resulted in more than one million deaths worldwide as of October 14, 2020. By using the logistic regression model, we identified novel critical factors associated with COVID19 cases, death, and case fatality rates in 154 countries and in the 50 U.S. states. Among numerous factors associated with COVID-19 risk, economic inequality enhanced the risk of COVID-19 transmission. The per capita hospital beds correlated negatively with COVID-19 deaths. Blood types B and AB were protective factors for COVID-19 risk, while blood type A was a risk factor. The prevalence of HIV and influenza and pneumonia was associated with reduced COVID-19 risk. Increased intake of vegetables, edible oil, protein, vitamin D, and vitamin K was associated with reduced COVID-19 risk, while increased intake of alcohol was associated with increased COVID-19 risk. Other factors included age, sex, temperature, humidity, social distancing, smoking, health investment, urbanization level, and race. High temperature is a more compelling factor mitigating COVID-19 transmission than low temperature. Our comprehensive identification of the factors affecting COVID-19 transmission and fatality may provide new insights into the COVID-19 pandemic and advise effective strategies for preventing and migrating COVID-19 spread.

SUBMITTER: Li M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7550892 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying novel factors associated with COVID-19 transmission and fatality using the machine learning approach.

Li Mengyuan M Zhang Zhilan Z Cao Wenxiu W Liu Yijing Y Du Beibei B Chen Canping C Liu Qian Q Uddin Md Nazim MN Jiang Shanmei S Chen Cai C Zhang Yue Y Wang Xiaosheng X

The Science of the total environment 20201013

The COVID-19 virus has infected more than 38 million people and resulted in more than one million deaths worldwide as of October 14, 2020. By using the logistic regression model, we identified novel critical factors associated with COVID19 cases, death, and case fatality rates in 154 countries and in the 50 U.S. states. Among numerous factors associated with COVID-19 risk, economic inequality enhanced the risk of COVID-19 transmission. The per capita hospital beds correlated negatively with COVI ...[more]

PMID: 33097268

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Project description:BackgroundResearch gaps refer to unanswered questions in the existing body of knowledge, either due to a lack of studies or inconclusive results. Research gaps are essential starting points and motivation in scientific research. Traditional methods for identifying research gaps, such as literature reviews and expert opinions, can be time consuming, labor intensive, and prone to bias. They may also fall short when dealing with rapidly evolving or time-sensitive subjects. Thus, innovative scalable approaches are needed to identify research gaps, systematically assess the literature, and prioritize areas for further study in the topic of interest.ObjectiveIn this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approach for identifying research gaps through the analysis of scientific literature. We used the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study.MethodsWe conducted an analysis to identify research gaps in COVID-19 literature using the COVID-19 Open Research (CORD-19) data set, which comprises 1,121,433 papers related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach is based on the BERTopic topic modeling technique, which leverages transformers and class-based term frequency-inverse document frequency to create dense clusters allowing for easily interpretable topics. Our BERTopic-based approach involves 3 stages: embedding documents, clustering documents (dimension reduction and clustering), and representing topics (generating candidates and maximizing candidate relevance).ResultsAfter applying the study selection criteria, we included 33,206 abstracts in the analysis of this study. The final list of research gaps identified 21 different areas, which were grouped into 6 principal topics. These topics were: "virus of COVID-19," "risk factors of COVID-19," "prevention of COVID-19," "treatment of COVID-19," "health care delivery during COVID-19," "and impact of COVID-19." The most prominent topic, observed in over half of the analyzed studies, was "the impact of COVID-19."ConclusionsThe proposed machine learning-based approach has the potential to identify research gaps in scientific literature. This study is not intended to replace individual literature research within a selected topic. Instead, it can serve as a guide to formulate precise literature search queries in specific areas associated with research questions that previous publications have earmarked for future exploration. Future research should leverage an up-to-date list of studies that are retrieved from the most common databases in the target area. When feasible, full texts or, at minimum, discussion sections should be analyzed rather than limiting their analysis to abstracts. Furthermore, future studies could evaluate more efficient modeling algorithms, especially those combining topic modeling with statistical uncertainty quantification, such as conformal prediction.

Project description:Individuals with the SARS-CoV-2 infection may experience a wide range of symptoms, from being asymptomatic to having a mild fever and cough to a severe respiratory impairment that results in death. MicroRNA (miRNA), which plays a role in the antiviral effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, has the potential to be used as a novel marker to distinguish between patients who have various COVID-19 clinical severities. In the current study, the existing blood expression profiles reported in two previous studies were combined for deep analyses. The final profiles contained 1444 miRNAs in 375 patients from six categories, which were as follows: 30 patients with mild COVID-19 symptoms, 81 patients with moderate COVID-19 symptoms, 30 non-COVID-19 patients with mild symptoms, 137 patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms, 31 non-COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms, and 66 healthy controls. An efficient computational framework containing four feature selection methods (LASSO, LightGBM, MCFS, and mRMR) and four classification algorithms (DT, KNN, RF, and SVM) was designed to screen clinical miRNA markers, and a high-precision RF model with a 0.780 weighted F1 was constructed. Some miRNAs, including miR-24-3p, whose differential expression was discovered in patients with acute lung injury complications brought on by severe COVID-19, and miR-148a-3p, differentially expressed against SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins, were identified, thereby suggesting the effectiveness and accuracy of our framework. Meanwhile, we extracted classification rules based on the DT model for the quantitative representation of the role of miRNA expression in differentiating COVID-19 patients with different severities. The search for novel biomarkers that could predict the severity of the disease could aid in the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and in exploring the specific mechanisms of the complications caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, new therapeutic targets for the disease may be found.

Dataset Information

Identifying novel factors associated with COVID-19 transmission and fatality using the machine learning approach.

Publications

Identifying novel factors associated with COVID-19 transmission and fatality using the machine learning approach.

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