State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States.

ABSTRACT: During an epidemic, metrics such as R0, doubling time, and case fatality rates are important in understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. However, if collected over country or regional scales, these metrics hide important smaller-scale, local dynamics. We examine how commonly used epidemiological metrics differ for each individual state within the United States during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the detected case number and trajectory of early detected cases differ considerably between states. We then test for correlations with testing protocols, interventions and population characteristics. We find that epidemic dynamics were most strongly associated with non-pharmaceutical government actions during the early phase of the epidemic. In particular, early socia

SUBMITTER: White ER 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7553297 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature