The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model.

ABSTRACT: We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cos

SUBMITTER: Keogh-Brown MR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7553875 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature