Project description:We present results of different approaches to model the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina, with a special focus on the megacity conformed by the city of Buenos Aires and its metropolitan area, including a total of 41 districts with over 13 million inhabitants. We first highlight the relevance of interpreting the early stage of the epidemic in light of incoming infectious travelers from abroad. Next, we critically evaluate certain proposed solutions to contain the epidemic based on instantaneous modifications of the reproductive number. Finally, we build increasingly complex and realistic models, ranging from simple homogeneous models used to estimate local reproduction numbers, to fully coupled inhomogeneous (deterministic or stochastic) models incorporating mobility estimates from cell phone location data. The models are capable of producing forecasts highly consistent with the official number of cases with minimal parameter fitting and fine-tuning. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the proposed models, focusing on the validity of different necessary first approximations, and caution future modeling efforts to exercise great care in the interpretation of long-term forecasts, and in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions backed by numerical simulations.
Project description:ObjectivesThe family stress model proposes economic hardship results in caregiver distress and relational problems, which negatively impact youth outcomes. We extend this model to evaluate the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic-related family hardships on caregiver and youth stress, and, in turn, youth's psychological well-being. We also investigate how social supports moderate this relationship.MethodsWe used 2 samples of cross-sectional survey data collected between May 2020 and May 2021: children aged 2 to 12 years (n = 977) and adolescents aged 11 to 17 years (n = 669). Variables included pandemic-related family hardships, stress, social support, and youth life satisfaction. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling.ResultsExperiencing more pandemic-related family hardships was associated with increased caregiver and youth stress (b = 0.04 to 0.21, SE = 0.01-0.02) and, in turn, decreased youth life satisfaction (b = -0.36 to -0.38, SE = 0.04-0.07). Social connectedness (b^ = 0.11-0.17, SE = 0.04) and family engagement (b^ = 0.12-0.18, SE = 0.05-0.06) had direct positive associations with life satisfaction; for children aged 2 to 12 years, greater family engagement was associated with decreased effect of child stress on life satisfaction (b^ = 0.15, SE = 0.05). For adolescents, females had higher levels of stress compared with males (b^ = 0.40, SE = 0.6), and having anxiety and/or depression was associated with decreased life satisfaction (b^ = -0.24, SE = 0.11).ConclusionsCaregivers and youth who experienced more coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic hardships had higher levels of stress, particularly adolescent females. Although stress negatively impacted life satisfaction across all ages, family engagement was a protective factor for children aged 2 to 12 years, whereas having anxiety and/or depression was a risk factor for adolescents. For all youth, however, being more socially connected and engaged with family promoted life satisfaction.
Project description:This paper studies the health and well-being of children during the COVID-19 lockdowns in a developing country context. Using surveys for low-income households in rural areas of Pakistan, we find that lockdowns are associated with worsened health and well-being of children. Exploring potential economic and noneconomic mechanisms behind this negative association, we find that children participating in the labor market due to extreme poverty suffer the worst impact from lockdowns. These results call for policies that target resources towards households where children's participation in the labor market is more likely since leaving vulnerable children behind will have a lasting economic impact for developing economies.
Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak has become one of the largest public health crises of our time. Governments have responded by implementing self-isolation and physical distancing measures that have profoundly impacted daily life throughout the world. In this study, we aimed to investigate how people experience the activities, interactions, and settings of their lives during the pandemic. The sample (N = 604) was assessed in Ireland on the 25 March 2020, following the closure of schools and non-essential businesses. We examined within-person variance in emotional well-being and how people spend their time. We found that while most time was spent in the home (74%), time spent outdoors (8%) was associated with markedly raised positive affect and reduced negative emotions. Exercising, going for walks, gardening, pursuing hobbies, and taking care of children were the activities associated with the greatest affective benefits. Home-schooling children and obtaining information about COVID-19 were ranked lowest of all activities in terms of emotional experience. These findings highlight activities that may play a protective role in relation to well-being during the pandemic, the importance of setting limits for exposure to COVID-19-related media coverage, and the need for greater educational supports to facilitate home-schooling during this challenging period.
Project description:To reveal genetic determinants of susceptibility to COVID-19 severity in the population and further explore potential immune-related factors, we performed a genome-wide association study on 284 confirmed COVID-19 patients (cases) and 95 healthy individuals (controls). We compared cases and controls of European (EUR) ancestry and African American (AFR) ancestry separately. To further exploring the linkage between HLA and COVID-19 severity, we applied fine-mapping analysis to dissect the HLA association with mild and severe cases.