Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response.

ABSTRACT: In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working on different approaches, including stochastic processes, statistical methods and artificial intelligence. Here we describe the efforts and challenges to develop a flexible modeling framework able to describe the dynamics observed for the tested positive cases, including the modelling development steps. The results obtained by a new stochastic SHARUCD model framework are presented. Our models differentiate mild and asymptomatic from severe infections prone to be hospitalized and were able to predict the course of the epidemic, providing important projections on the national

SUBMITTER: Aguiar M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7560887 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature