Forecasting the epidemiological trends of COVID-19 prevalence and mortality using the advanced α-Sutte Indicator.

ABSTRACT: Forecasting the epidemics of the diseases is very valuable in planning and supplying resources effectively. This study aims to estimate the epidemiological trends of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence and mortality using the advanced α-Sutte Indicator, and its prediction accuracy level was compared with the most frequently adopted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Time-series analysis was performed based on the total confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the world, Brazil, Peru, Canada and Chile between 27 February 2020 and 30 June 2020. By comparing the prediction reliability indices, including the root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean error rate, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error, the α-Sutte Indica

SUBMITTER: Wang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7562786 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature