Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City.

ABSTRACT: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, formulating targeted policy interventions that are informed by differential severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics will be of vital importance to national and regional governments. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities. We use these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices to instantiate specific models for Hubei, China; Lombardy, Italy; and New York City, United States. Using data on reported deaths to obtain a posterior distribution over unknown parameters, we infer differences in the progression of the epidemic in the three locations. We also examine the role of tran

SUBMITTER: Wilder B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7568285 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature