Buy now, saved later? The critical impact of time-to-pandemic uncertainty on pandemic cost-effectiveness analyses.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Investment in pandemic preparedness is a long-term gamble, with the return on investment coming at an unknown point in the future. Many countries have chosen to stockpile key resources, and the number of pandemic economic evaluations has risen sharply since 2009. We assess the importance of uncertainty in time-to-pandemic (and associated discounting) in pandemic economic evaluation, a factor frequently neglected in the literature to-date.

Methods

We use a probability tree model and Monte Carlo parameter sampling to consider the cost effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling in Cambodia under parameter uncertainty. Mean elasticity and mutual information (MI) are used to assess the importance of time-to-pandemic compared with other parameters. We also consider the sens

SUBMITTER: Drake T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7574603 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature