Is "no test is better than a bad test"? Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Testing is viewed as a critical aspect of any strategy to tackle epidemics. Much of the dialogue around testing has concentrated on how countries can scale up capacity, but the uncertainty in testing has not received nearly as much attention beyond asking if a test is accurate enough to be used. Even for highly accurate tests, false positives and false negatives will accumulate as mass testing strategies are employed under pressure, and these misdiagnoses could have major implications on the ability of governments to suppress the virus. The present analysis uses a modified SIR model to understand the implication and magnitude of misdiagnosis in the context of ending lockdown measures. The results indicate that increased testing capacity alone will not provide a solution to lockdown measure

SUBMITTER: Gray N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7577497 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature