SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting stochastic transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases reported of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI 2·558-14·668) on January 23rd, 2020 to 1.130 (95% CI 0.289-3.279) on February 7th, 2020

SUBMITTER: Yang T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7591883 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature