Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study.

ABSTRACT: When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections are substantial for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the feasibility of preventing the major epidemic has been questioned. Using a two-type branching process model, the present study assesses the feasibility of containing COVID-19 by computing the probability of a major epidemic. We show that if there is a substantial number of asymptomatic transmissions, cutting chains of transmission by mea

SUBMITTER: Kinoshita R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7600034 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature