The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts' Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company.

ABSTRACT: Electricity price forecasting has a paramount effect on generation companies (GenCos) due to the scheduling of the electricity generation scheme according to electricity price forecasts. Inaccurate electricity price forecasts could cause important loss of profits to the suppliers. In this paper, the financial effect of inaccurate electricity price forecasts on a hydro-based GenCo is examined. Electricity price forecasts of five individual and four hybrid forecast models and the ex-post actual prices are used to schedule the hydro-based GenCo using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The financial effect measures of profit loss, Economic Loss Index (ELI) and Price Forecast Disadvantage Index (PFDI), as well as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the models are used for comparison of the data

SUBMITTER: Ugurlu U 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7610985 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature