Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans.

ABSTRACT: Heatwaves are a serious threat to human life. Public health agencies that are responsible for delivering heat-health action plans need to assess and reduce the mortality impacts of heat. Statistical models developed in epidemiology have previously been used to attribute past observed deaths to high temperatures and project future heat-related deaths. Here, we investigate the novel use of summer temperature-mortality associations established by these models for monitoring heat-related deaths in regions in England in near real time. For four summers in the period 2011-2020, we find that coupling these associations with observed daily mean temperatures results in England-wide heatwave mortality estimates that are consistent with the excess deaths estimated by UK Health Security Agency. Howeve

SUBMITTER: Lo YTE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7612535 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature