Predicting long-term survival and time-to-recurrence after esophagectomy in patients with esophageal cancer - Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gujjuri RR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7614526 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Predicting long-term survival and time-to-recurrence after esophagectomy in patients with esophageal cancer - Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model.
Gujjuri Rohan R RR Clarke Jonathan M JM Elliott Jessie A JA Rahman Saqib A SA Reynolds John V JV Hanna George B GB Markar Sheraz R SR
Annals of surgery 20220715 6
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Project description:The aim of this study was to construct an effective clinical nomogram for predicting the survival of esophageal cancer patients after esophagectomy. We identified esophageal cancer patients (n = 4,281) who underwent esophagectomy between 1988 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries database. Clinically significant parameters for survival were used to construct a nomogram based on Cox regression analyses. The model was validated using bootstrap resampling and a Chinese cohort (n = 145). A total of 4,109 patients from the SEER database were included for analysis. The multivariate analyses showed that the factors of age, race, histology, tumor site, tumor size, grade and depth of invasion, and the numbers of metastases and retrieved nodes were independent prognostic factors. All of these factors were selected into the nomogram. The nomogram showed a clear prognostic superiority over the seventh AJCC-TNM classification (C-index: SEER cohort, 0.716 vs 0.693, respectively; P < 0.01; Chinese cohort, 0.699 vs 0.680, respectively; P < 0.01). Calibration of the nomogram predicted the probabilities of 3- and 5-year survival, which corresponded closely with the actual survival rates. This novel prognostic model may improve clinicians' abilities to predict individualized survival and to make treatment recommendations.
| S-EPMC4877645 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to determine the long-term overall and disease-free survival and factors associated with overall survival in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing a totally minimally invasive Ivor Lewis esophagectomy (MILE) at a safety-net hospital.MethodsThis was a single-center retrospective review of consecutive patients who underwent MILE from September 2013 to November 2017. Overall and disease-free survival were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier estimates, and hazard ratios (HR) were derived from multivariable Cox regression models.ResultsNinety-six patients underwent MILE during the study period. Overall survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 83.2%, 61.9%, and 55.9%, respectively. Disease-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 83.2%, 60.6%, and 47.5%, respectively. Overall survival (p < 0.001) and disease-free survival (p < 0.001) differed across pathological stages. By multivariable analysis, increasing age (HR, 1.06; p = 0.02), decreasing Karnofsky performance status score (HR, 0.94; p = 0.002), presence of stage IV disease (HR, 5.62; p = 0.002), locoregional recurrence (HR, 2.94; p = 0.03), and distant recurrence (HR, 4.78; p < 0.001) were negatively associated with overall survival. Overall survival significantly declined within 2 years and was independently associated with stage IV disease (HR, 3.29; p = 0.04) and distant recurrence (HR, 5.78; p < 0.001).ConclusionMILE offers favorable long-term overall and disease-free survival outcomes. Age, Karnofsky performance status score, stage IV, and disease recurrence are shown to be prognostic factors of overall survival. Prospective studies comparing long-term outcomes after different MIE approaches are warranted to validate survival outcomes after MILE.
| S-EPMC8876443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction model was developed and validated for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in combination with surgery.Patients and methodsWe included 282 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) combined with surgery, constructed three models incorporating pathological factors, investigated the discrimination and calibration of each model, and compared the clinical utility of each model using the net reclassification index (NRI) and the integrated discrimination index (IDI).ResultsMultivariable analysis showed that pathologic complete response (pCR) and lymph node tumor regression grading (LN-TRG) (p < 0.05) were independent prognostic factors for RFS. LASSO regression screened six correlates of LN-TRG, vascular invasion, nerve invasion, degree of differentiation, platelet grade, and a total diameter of residual cancer in lymph nodes to build model three, which was consistent in terms of efficacy in the training set and validation set. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves showed that all three models were able to distinguish well between high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.01). The NRI and IDI showed that the clinical utility of model 2 was slightly better than that of model 1 (p > 0.05), and model 3 was significantly better than that of model 2 (p < 0.05).ConclusionsClinical prediction models incorporating LN-TRG factors have high predictive efficacy, can help identify patients at high risk of recurrence after neoadjuvant therapy, and can be used as a supplement to the AJCC/TNM staging system while offering a scientific rationale for early postoperative intervention.
| S-EPMC10695895 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The purpose of this study was to examine the role of induction chemoradiation in the treatment of potentially resectable locally advanced (T2-3N0 and T1-3N+) esophageal cancer utilizing a large national database. The National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) was queried for all patients undergoing esophagectomy for clinical T2-3N0 and T1-3N+ esophageal cancer of the mid- or lower esophagus. Patients were stratified by the use of induction chemoradiation therapy versus surgery-first. Trends were assessed with the Cochran-Armitage test. Predictors of receiving induction therapy were evaluated with multivariable logistic regression. A propensity-matched analysis was conducted to compare outcomes between groups, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate long-term survival. Within the NCDB, 7921 patients were identified, of which 6103 (77.0%) were treated with chemoradiation prior to esophagectomy, while the remaining 1818 (23.0%) were managed with surgery-first. Use of induction therapy increased over time, with an absolute increase of 11.8% from 2003-2011 (P < 0.001). As revealed by the propensity model, induction therapy was associated with higher rates of negative margins and shorter hospital length of stay, but no differences in unplanned readmission and 30-day mortality rates. In unadjusted survival analysis, induction therapy was associated with better long-term survival compared to a strategy of surgery-first, with 5-year survival rates of 37.2% versus 28.6%, P < 0.001. Following propensity score matching analysis, the use of induction therapy maintained a significant survival advantage over surgery-first (5-year survival: 37.9% vs. 28.7%, P < 0.001). Treatment with induction chemoradiation therapy prior to surgical resection is associated with significant improvement in long-term survival, even after adjusting for confounders with a propensity model. Induction therapy should be considered in all medically appropriate patients with resectable cT2-3N0 and cT1-3N+ esophageal cancer, prior to esophagectomy.
| S-EPMC4362812 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEsophagectomy is associated with lasting effect on health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Patients desire detailed information on the expected impact of treatment on their postoperative HRQOL. The aim of the present study is to identify clinicopathological characteristics predictive for changes in short-term and long-term HRQOL after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery.MethodsHRQOL was measured using EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-OES24 questionnaires prior to nCRT, three, six, nine and twelve months postoperatively and at a minimum of six years postoperatively. Based on previous experience and available literature, several subgroups were predefined for different clinicopathological characteristics: baseline global HRQOL, WHO performance status, histology, tumor stage and tumor location. The primary endpoints of the present study were the change compared to baseline in the HRQOL dimensions physical functioning and eating problems. Secondary endpoints were global HRQOL, fatigue and emotional problems.ResultsIn total, 134 (76%) of 177 patients who received HRQOL questionnaires, responded at baseline. Patients who reported a high baseline global HRQOL had a more severe deterioration in eating problems (+14.5 to + 18.0), global HRQOL (-16.0 to -28.0) and fatigue (+10.5 to +14.9) up to six years postoperatively compared to patients who reported a low baseline global HRQOL. Patients who had stage 2 tumor (UICC 6th edition) had a more severe deterioration in eating problems (+14.6 to +19.0) and global HRQOL (-10.1 to -17.1) than patients who had stage 3 tumor.ConclusionsThe results suggest that patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer in favorable condition at baseline decline more in terms of various HRQOL outcomes.
| S-EPMC10625935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionEsophagectomy is a key component in the curative treatment of esophageal cancer. Little is understood about the impact of smoking status on perioperative morbidity and mortality and the long-term outcome of patients following esophagectomy.ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate morbidity and mortality according to smoking status in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer.MethodsConsecutive patients undergoing two-stage transthoracic esophagectomy (TTE) for esophageal cancers (adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma) between January 1997 and December 2016 at the Northern Oesophagogastric Unit were included from a prospectively maintained database. The main explanatory variable was smoking status, defined as current smoker, ex-smoker, and non-smoker. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), while secondary outcomes included perioperative complications (overall, anastomotic leaks, and pulmonary complications) and survival (cancer-specific survival [CSS], recurrence-free survival [RFS]).ResultsDuring the study period, 1168 patients underwent esophagectomy for cancer. Of these, 24% (n = 282) were current smokers and only 30% (n = 356) had never smoked. The median OS of current smokers was significantly shorter than ex-smokers and non-smokers (median 36 vs. 42 vs. 48 months; p = 0.015). However, on adjusted analysis, there was no significant difference in long-term OS between smoking status in the entire cohort. The overall complication rates were significantly higher with current smokers compared with ex-smokers or non-smokers (73% vs. 66% vs. 62%; p = 0.018), and there were no significant differences in anastomotic leaks and pulmonary complications between the groups. On subgroup analysis by receipt of neoadjuvant therapy and tumor histology, smoking status did not impact long-term survival in adjusted multivariable analyses.ConclusionAlthough smoking is associated with higher rates of short-term perioperative morbidity, it does not affect long-term OS, CSS, and RFS following esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Therefore, implementation of perioperative pathways to optimize patients may help reduce the risk of complications.
| S-EPMC8349321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background/Objectives: Loco-regional recurrence (LRR) of esophageal cancer following esophagectomy presents a significant therapeutic problem. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of salvage concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and to identify the prognostic factors influencing the survival outcomes in patients with an LRR of esophageal cancer. Methods: This retrospective study included 68 patients who underwent salvage CCRT for an LRR of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma between April 2008 and June 2024. Patients were treated with either 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions or 60 Gy in 30 fractions, along with concurrent fluoropyrimidine- and platinum-based chemotherapy. Prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results: The median overall survival (OS) was 30.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.5-110.7 months), with a 2-year OS rate of 57.4%. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 8.9 months (95% CI: 6.3-17.7 months). In the multivariate analysis, the significant prognostic factors for OS included the interval to recurrence (>1 year vs. ≤1 year, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.307, p = 0.024) and radiotherapy dose (60 Gy vs. 50.4 Gy, HR = 2.414, p = 0.040). For PFS, the interval to recurrence and radiotherapy dose remained significant predictors (p < 0.05). The 2-year OS rate was higher in the 60 Gy arm (62.7% vs. 42.0%, p = 0.285) and in patients with recurrence occurring >1 year after surgery (73.4% vs. 29.9%, p = 0.0054). The local control rate at 2 years was 71.9%, with better outcomes observed in the 60 Gy arm (93.5% vs. 76.5%, p = 0.0651). Conclusions: Salvage CCRT is a viable treatment option for LRR of esophageal cancer, achieving favorable survival outcomes, particularly in patients with late recurrence (>1 year) and in those receiving higher radiotherapy doses.
| S-EPMC11899801 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The knowledge of both patterns and risk of relapse following resection for esophageal cancer is crucial for establishing appropriate surveillance schedules. The aim of this study was to evaluate the pattern of hazards for tumor recurrence and tumor-related death in the postoperative long-term follow-up after esophagectomy. METHODS:Retrospective single-center analysis of 362 patients, with resected esophageal cancer. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used. RESULTS:A total of 192 (53%) had postoperative tumor recurrence. The relapse patterns of adenocarcinoma and squamous-cell carcinoma showed that each had a single peak, 12 months after surgery. After induction there was one peak at 5 months, the non-induced patients peaked 11 months, postoperatively. At 18 months, the recurrence hazard declined sharply in all cases. The hazard curves for tumor-related death were bimodal for adenocarcinoma, with two peaks at 6 and 22 months and one single peak for squamous-cell carcinoma at 18 months after surgery, showing pronounced decline later on. CONCLUSION:In curatively resected esophageal cancer, both tumor recurrence hazard and hazard for tumor-related death showed distinct, partly bimodal patterns. It could be justified to intensify the surveillance during the first two postoperative years by initiating a close-meshed follow-up to detect and treat tumor recurrence, as early as possible.
| S-EPMC7466063 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHospital readmissions are costly and associated with inferior patient outcomes. There is limited knowledge related to readmissions after esophagectomy for malignancy. Our aim was to determine the impact on survival of readmission after esophagectomy.MethodsThis cohort study utilizes Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data (2002 to 2009). Survival, length of stay, 30-day readmissions, and discharge disposition were determined. Multivariate logistic regression models were created to examine risk factors associated with readmission.ResultsIn all, 1,744 patients with esophageal cancer underwent esophagectomy: 80% of patients (1,390) were male, and mean age was 73 years; 71.8% of tumors (1,251) were adenocarcinomas, and 72.5% (1,265) were distal esophageal tumors; 38% of patients (667) received induction therapy. Operative approach was transthoracic in 52.6% of patients (918) and transhiatal in 37.4% (653), and required complex reconstruction (intestinal interposition) in 9.9% (173). Stage distribution was as follows: stage I, 35.3% (616); stage II, 32.5% (566); stage III, 27.9% (487); and stage IV, 2.3% (40). Median length of stay was 13 days, hospital mortality was 9.3% (158 patients), and 30-day readmission rate was 18.6% (212 of 1,139 home discharges); 25.4% of patients (443) were discharged to institutional care facilities. Overall survival was significantly worse for patients who were readmitted (p < 0.0001, log rank test). Risk factors for readmission were comorbidity score of 3+, urgent admission, and urban residence.ConclusionsHospital readmissions after esophagectomy for cancer occur frequently and are associated with worse survival. Improved identification of patients at risk for readmission after esophagectomy can inform patient selection, discharge planning, and outpatient monitoring. Optimization of such practices may lead to improved outcomes at reduced cost.
| S-EPMC4282960 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBiomarkers to predict the risk of disease recurrence in Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients are urgently needed to improve treatment. We developed proteins expression-based risk model to predict recurrence free survival for ESCC patients.MethodsAlterations in Wnt pathway components expression and subcellular localization were analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 80 ESCCs, 61 esophageal dysplastic and 47 normal tissues; correlated with clinicopathological parameters and clinical outcome over 86 months by survival analysis. Significant prognostic factors were identified by multivariable Cox regression analysis.ResultsBiomarker signature score based on cytoplasmic β-catenin, nuclear c-Myc, nuclear DVL and membrane α-catenin was associated with recurrence free survival [Hazard ratio = 1.11 (95% CI = 1.05, 1.17), p < 0.001, C-index = 0.68] and added significant prognostic value over clinical parameters (p < 0.001). The inclusion of Slug further improved prognostic utility (p < 0.001, C-index = 0.71). Biomarker Signature Scoreslug improved risk classification abilities for clinical outcomes at 3 years, accurately predicting recurrence in 79% patients in 1 year and 97% in 3 years in high risk group; 73% patients within low risk group did not have recurrence in 1 year, with AUC of 0.76.ConclusionsOur comprehensive risk model predictive for recurrence allowed us to determine the robustness of our biomarker panel in stratification of ESCC patients at high or low risk of disease recurrence; high risk patients are stratified for more rigorous personalized treatment while the low risk patients may be spared from harmful side effects of toxic therapy.
| S-EPMC9477219 | biostudies-literature