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Using biomarkers to allocate patients in a response-adaptive clinical trial.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we discuss a response adaptive randomization method, and why it should be used in clinical trials for rare diseases compared to a randomized controlled trial with equal fixed randomization. The developed method uses a patient's biomarkers to alter the allocation probability to each treatment, in order to emphasize the benefit to the trial population. The method starts with an initial burn-in period of a small number of patients, who with equal probability, are allocated to each treatment. We then use a regression method to predict the best outcome of the next patient, using their biomarkers and the information from the previous patients. This estimated best treatment is assigned to the next patient with high probability. A completed clinical trial for the effect of catumaxomab on the survival of cancer patients is used as an example to demonstrate the use of the method and the differences to a controlled trial with equal allocation. Different regression procedures are investigated and compared to a randomized controlled trial, using efficacy and ethical measures.

SUBMITTER: Jackson H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7615340 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using biomarkers to allocate patients in a response-adaptive clinical trial.

Jackson H H Bowen S S Jaki T T

Communications in statistics: Simulation and computation 20211125 12

In this paper, we discuss a response adaptive randomization method, and why it should be used in clinical trials for rare diseases compared to a randomized controlled trial with equal fixed randomization. The developed method uses a patient's biomarkers to alter the allocation probability to each treatment, in order to emphasize the benefit to the trial population. The method starts with an initial burn-in period of a small number of patients, who with equal probability, are allocated to each tr ...[more]

PMID: 38045870

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Project description:BackgroundVaccine clinical studies typically provide time-resolved data on adaptive response read-outs in response to the administration of that particular vaccine to a cohort of individuals. However, modeling such data is challenged by the properties of these time-resolved profiles such as non-linearity, scarcity of measurement points, scheduling of the vaccine at multiple time points. Linear Mixed Models (LMM) are often used for the analysis of longitudinal data but their use in these time-resolved immunological data is not common yet. Apart from the modeling challenges mentioned earlier, selection of the optimal model by using information-criterion-based measures is far from being straight-forward. The aim of this study is to provide guidelines for the application and selection of LMMs that deal with the challenging characteristics of the typical data sets in the field of vaccine clinical studies.MethodsWe used antibody measurements in response to Hepatitis-B vaccine with five different adjuvant formulations for demonstration purposes. We built piecewise-linear, piecewise-quadratic and cubic models with transformations of the axes with pre-selected or optimized knot locations where time is a numerical variable. We also investigated models where time is categorical and random effects are shared intercepts between different measurement points. We compared all models by using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), variations of conditional AIC and by visual inspection of the model fit in the light of prior biological information.ResultsThere are various ways of dealing with the challenges of the data which have their own advantages and disadvantages. We explain these in detail here. Traditional information-criteria-based measures work well for the coarse selection of the model structure and complexity, however are not efficient at fine tuning of the complexity level of the random effects.ConclusionsWe show that common statistical measures for optimal model complexity are not sufficient. Rather, explicitly accounting for model purpose and biological interpretation is needed to arrive at relevant models.Trial registrationClinical trial registration number for this study: NCT00805389, date of registration: December 9, 2008 (pro-active registration).

Project description:BackgroundMethotrexate is the preferred initial disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, clinically useful tools for individualized prediction of response to methotrexate treatment in patients with RA are lacking. We aimed to identify clinical predictors of response to methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using machine learning methods.MethodsRandomized clinical trials (RCT) of patients with RA who were DMARD-naïve and randomized to placebo plus methotrexate were identified and accessed through the Clinical Study Data Request Consortium and Vivli Center for Global Clinical Research Data. Studies with available Disease Activity Score with 28-joint count and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) at baseline and 12 and 24 weeks were included. Latent class modeling of methotrexate response was performed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forests methods were used to identify predictors of response.ResultsA total of 775 patients from 4 RCTs were included (mean age 50 years, 80% female). Two distinct classes of patients were identified based on DAS28-ESR change over 24 weeks: "good responders" and "poor responders." Baseline DAS28-ESR, anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA), and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score were the top predictors of good response using LASSO (area under the curve [AUC] 0.79) and random forests (AUC 0.68) in the external validation set. DAS28-ESR ≤ 7.4, ACPA positive, and HAQ ≤ 2 provided the highest likelihood of response. Among patients with 12-week DAS28-ESR > 3.2, ≥ 1 point improvement in DAS28-ESR baseline-to-12-week was predictive of achieving DAS28-ESR ≤ 3.2 at 24 weeks.ConclusionsWe have developed and externally validated a prediction model for response to methotrexate within 24 weeks in DMARD-naïve patients with RA, providing variably weighted clinical features and defined cutoffs for clinical decision-making.

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Using biomarkers to allocate patients in a response-adaptive clinical trial.

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Using biomarkers to allocate patients in a response-adaptive clinical trial.

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