Dynamic prediction of reoffending in individuals given community sentences: Development and validation of a novel risk monitoring assessment tool (oxMore).

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aimed to develop and validate a dynamic risk assessment tool for individuals serving community sentences that accounts for the effects of acute adverse events and desistance from crime.

Hypotheses

Dynamic risk prediction models that incorporate updated data on mental health relapses, incidents of victimization, and desistance from crime will produce more accurate risk stratification for reoffending than models lacking dynamic measurement of risk factors.

Method

We analyzed a national cohort of 59,676 individuals given community sentences in Sweden, of whom 23,879 (45%) had prior psychiatric diagnoses and 18,546 (31%) had substance use disorder diagnoses. Model development tested prespecified criminal history, sociodemographic, and clinical risk fa

SUBMITTER: Yukhnenko D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7618717 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature