Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data.

ABSTRACT: As the number of global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases increases, the number of imported cases is gradually rising. Furthermore, there is no reduction in domestic outbreaks. To assess the risks from imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea, we suggest using the daily risk score. Confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by John Hopkins University Center, roaming data collected from Korea Telecom, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker index were included in calculating the risk score. The risk score was highly correlated with imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days. To forecast daily imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days in South Korea, we developed prediction models using simple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average, including exogenous variables (ARIMAX).

SUBMITTER: Choi SB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7641397 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature