Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections peak during the winter months in the United States, yet the timing, intensity, and onset of these outbreaks vary each year. An RSV vaccine is on the cusp of being released; precise models and accurate forecasts of RSV epidemics may prove vital for planning where and when the vaccine should be deployed. Accurate forecasts with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution could also be used to support the prevention or treatment of RSV infections. Previously, we developed and validated an RSV forecast system at the regional scale in the United States. This model-inference system had considerable forecast skill, relative to the historical expectance, for outbreak peak intensity, total outbreak size, and onset, but only marginal skill for predicting t

SUBMITTER: Reis J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7643169 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature