Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mitchell KM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7654885 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.
Mitchell Kate M KM Dimitrov Dobromir D Silhol Romain R Geidelberg Lily L Moore Mia M Liu Albert A Beyrer Chris C Mayer Kenneth H KH Baral Stefan S Boily Marie-Claude MC
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20201103
<h4>Background</h4>During the COVID-19 pandemic, gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) report similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has declined. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and mortality among US MSM.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a calibrated HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore, Maryland, and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to predict impa ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA have reported similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access compared with before the pandemic. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has also declined. We aimed to quantify the potential effect of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among US MSM.MethodsWe used a calibrated, deterministic, compartmental HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore (MD, USA) and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV services to predict effects of reductions in sexual partners (0%, 25%, 50%), condom use (5%), HIV testing (20%), viral suppression (10%), PrEP initiations (72%), PrEP adherence (9%), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations (50%). In our main analysis, we modelled disruptions due to COVID-19 starting Jan 1, 2020, and lasting 6 months. We estimated the median change in cumulative new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths among MSM over 1 and 5 years, compared with a base case scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions.FindingsA 25% reduction in sexual partners for 6 months among MSM in Baltimore, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by median 12·2% (95% credible interval 11·7 to 12·8) over 1 year and median 3·0% (2·6 to 3·4) over 5 years. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the 6-month estimated reductions in condom use, HIV testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP adherence, and ART initiations combined are predicted to increase new HIV infections by median 10·5% (5·8 to 16·5) over 1 year, and by median 3·5% (2·1 to 5·4) over 5 years. Disruptions to ART initiations and viral suppression are estimated to substantially increase HIV-related deaths (ART initiations by median 1·7% [0·8 to 3·2], viral suppression by median 9·5% [5·2 to 15·9]) over 1 year, with smaller proportional increases over 5 years. The other individual disruptions (to HIV testing, PrEP and condom use, PrEP initiation, and partner numbers) were estimated to have little effect on HIV-related deaths (<1% change over 1 or 5 years). A 25% reduction in sexual partnerships is estimated to offset the effect of the combined service disruptions on new HIV infections (change over 1 year: median -3·9% [-7·4 to 1·0]; over 5 years: median 0·0% [-0·9 to 1·4]), but not on HIV deaths (change over 1 year: 11·0% [6·2 to 17·7]; over 5 years: 2·6% [1·5 to 4·3]).InterpretationMaintaining access to ART and adherence support is of the utmost importance to maintain viral suppression and minimise excess HIV-related mortality due to COVID-19 restrictions in the USA, even if disruptions to services are accompanied by reductions in sexual partnerships.FundingNational Institutes of Health.
| S-EPMC8045548 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:HIV testing is an essential prerequisite for accessing treatment with antiretroviral therapy or prevention using pre-exposure prophylaxis. Internet distribution of HIV self-tests is a novel approach, and data on the programmatic cost of this approach are limited. We analyse the costs and cost-effectiveness of a self-testing programme. METHODS:Men who have sex with men (MSM) reporting unknown or negative HIV status were enrolled from March to August 2015 into a 12-month trial of HIV self-testing in the United States. Participants were randomly assigned either to the self-testing arm or the control arm. All participants received information on HIV testing services and locations in their community. Self-testing participants received up to four self-tests each quarter, which they could use themselves or distribute to their social network associates. Quarterly follow-up surveys collected testing outcomes, including number of tests used and new HIV diagnoses. Using trial expenditure data, we estimated the cost of implementing a self-testing programme. Primary outcomes of this analysis included total programme implementation costs, cost per self-test completed, cost per person tested, cost per new HIV diagnosis among those self-tested and cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) saved. RESULTS:A total of 2665 men were assigned either to the self-testing arm (n = 1325) or the control arm (n = 1340). HIV testing was reported by 971 self-testing participants who completed a total of 5368 tests. In the control arm, 619 participants completed 1463 HIV tests. The self-testing participants additionally distributed 2864 self-tests to 2152 social network associates. Testing during the trial identified 59 participants and social network associates with newly diagnosed HIV infection in the self-testing arm; 11 control participants were newly diagnosed with HIV. The implementation cost of the HIV self-testing programme was $449,510. The cost per self-test completed, cost per person tested at least once, and incremental cost per new HIV diagnosis was $61, $145 and $9365 respectively. We estimated that self-testing programme potentially averted 3.34 transmissions, saved 14.86 QALYs and nearly $1.6 million lifetime HIV treatment costs. CONCLUSIONS:The HIV self-testing programme identified persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection at low cost, and the programme is cost saving.
| S-EPMC6970935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection and suppression of viral load are potentially powerful interventions for reducing HIV incidence. A test-and-treat strategy may have long-term effects on the epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and may achieve the 5-year goals of the 2010 National AIDS Strategy that include: 1) lowering to 25% the annual number of new infections, 2) reducing by 30% the HIV transmission rate, 3) increasing to 90% the proportion of persons living with HIV infection who know their HIV status, 4) increasing to 85% the proportion of newly diagnosed patients linked to clinical care, and 5) increasing by 20% the proportion of HIV-infected MSM with an undetectable HIV RNA viral load.Methods and findingsWe constructed a dynamic compartmental model among MSM in an urban population (based on New York City) that projects new HIV infections over time. We compared the cumulative number of HIV infections in 20 years, assuming current annual testing rate and treatment practices, with new infections after improvements in the annual HIV testing rate, notification of test results, linkage to care, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression. We also assessed whether five of the national HIV prevention goals could be met by the year 2015. Over a 20-year period, improvements in test-and-treat practice decreased the cumulative number of new infections by a predicted 39.3% to 69.1% in the urban population based on New York City. Institution of intermediate improvements in services would be predicted to meet at least four of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy by the 2015 target.ConclusionsImproving the five components of a test-and-treat strategy could substantially reduce HIV incidence among urban MSM, and meet most of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.
| S-EPMC3277596 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China. Methods Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%). A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment among MSM in China was used to estimate the impact of these disruptions on the number of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over 1 and 5 years for a 3-, 4- or 6-month disruption period. Results Our China model predicted that new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions for a 3-month period increasing HIV infections by 5-14% over 1 year and deaths by 7-12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5-14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11-23% fewer infections and 0.4-1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods of 4 and 6 months amplified the impact of combined disruption scenarios. When all realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections was always predicted over one year (3-17%), but not over 5 years (1% increase - 4% decrease), while deaths mostly increased over one year (1-2%) and 5 years (1.2 increase - 0.3 decrease). Conclusions The overall impact of COVID-19 on new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is dependent on the nature, scale and length of the various disruptions. Resources should be directed to ensuring levels of viral suppression and condom use are maintained to mitigate any adverse effects of COVID-19 related disruption on HIV transmission and control among MSM in China.
| S-EPMC7574267 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Men who have sex with men (MSM) can reduce their risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by using various prevention strategies and by understanding the effectiveness of each option over the short- and long-term. Strategies examined were: circumcision; insertive anal sex only; consistent, 100% self-reported condom use; and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). PrEP efficacy was based on three levels of adherence. The cumulative HIV acquisition risk among MSM over periods of 1 year and 10 years were estimated with and without single and combinations of prevention strategies. A Bernoulli process model was used to estimate risk. In the base case with no prevention strategies, the 1-year risk of HIV acquisition among MSM was 8.8%. In contrast, the 1-year risk associated with circumcision alone was 6.9%; with insertive sex only, 5.5%; with 100% self-reported condom use, 2.7%; and with average, high, and very high PrEP adherence, 5.1%, 2.5%, and 0.7%, respectively. The 10-year risk of HIV acquisition among MSM with no prevention strategy was 60.3%. In contrast, that associated with circumcision alone was 51.1%; with insertive sex only, 43.1%; with 100% self-reported condom use, 24.0%; and with average, high, and very high PrEP adherence, 40.5%, 22.2%, and 7.2%, respectively. While MSM face substantial risk of HIV, there are now a number of prevention strategies that reduce risk. Very high adherence to PrEP alone or with other strategies appears to be the most powerful tool for HIV prevention.
| S-EPMC5718615 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrevious models have estimated the total population attributable fraction of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis (NG/CT) on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), but this does not represent realistic intervention effects. We estimated the potential impact of screening for NG/CT on downstream incidence of HIV among MSM.MethodsUsing a network model, we estimated the effects of varying coverage levels for sexually transmitted infection screening among different priority populations: all sexually active MSM regardless of HIV serostatus, MSM with multiple recent (past 6 months) sex partners regardless of serostatus, MSM without HIV, and MSM with HIV. Under the assumption that all screening events included a urethral test, we also examined the effect of increasing the proportion of screening events that include rectal screening for NG/CT on HIV incidence.ResultsIncreasing annual NG/CT screening among sexually active MSM by 60% averted 4.9% of HIV infections over a 10-year period (interquartile range, 2.8%-6.8%). More HIV infections were averted when screening was focused on MSM with multiple recent sex partners: 60% coverage among MSM with multiple recent sex partners averted 9.8% of HIV infections (interquartile range, 8.1%-11.6%). Increased sexually transmitted infection screening among MSM without HIV averted more new HIV infections compared with the transmissions averted because of screening MSM with HIV, but fewer NG/CT tests were needed among MSM with HIV to avert a single new HIV infection.ConclusionsScreening of NG/CT among MSM is expected to lead to modest but clinically relevant reductions in HIV incidence among MSM.
| S-EPMC9481699 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia.MethodsAn MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated.FindingsWe predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6-48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022-2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2-56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2-20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022-2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage.InterpretationIf CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic.FundingNIH, MRC.
| S-EPMC9950652 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe OraQuick In-Home HIV self-test represents a fast, inexpensive, and convenient method for users to assess their HIV status. If integrated thoughtfully into existing testing practices, accompanied by efficient pathways to formal diagnosis, self-testing could enhance both HIV awareness and reduce HIV incidence. However, currently available self-tests are less sensitive, particularly for recent infection, when compared to gold-standard laboratory tests. It is important to understand the impact if some portion of standard testing is replaced by self-tests. We used a compartmental model to evaluate the effects of self-testing in diverse scenarios among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States for the period 2020-2030, and to understand which scenarios maximize the advantages of self-testing.MethodsWe introduced a novel 4-compartment model for HIV self-testing. We employed the model under different screening rates, self-test proportions, and delays to diagnosis for those identified through self-tests to determine the potential effects of self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status when applied to the US MSM population. We studied scenarios in which self-tests supplement laboratory-based tests, with no replacement, and scenarios in which some replacement occurs. We also examined how future improvements in self-test sensitivity may affect our results.ResultsWhen HIV self-tests are supplemental rather than substitutes for laboratory-based testing, self-testing can decrease HIV incidence among MSM in the US by up to 10 % and increase awareness of status among MSM from 85 % to 91 % over a 10-year period, provided linkage to care and formal diagnosis occur promptly following a positive self-test (90 days or less). As self-tests replace a higher percentage laboratory-based testing algorithms, increases in overall testing rates were necessary to ensure reductions in HIV incidence. However, such needed increases were relatively small (under 10 % for prompt engagement in care and moderate levels of replacement). Improvements in self-test sensitivity and/or decreases in the detection period may further reduce any necessary increases in overall testing by up to 40 %.ConclusionsIf properly utilized, self-testing can provide significant long-term reductions to HIV incidence and improve awareness of HIV status. Ensuring that self-testing increases overall testing and that formal diagnosis and engagement in care occur promptly following a positive self-test are necessary to maximize the benefits of self-testing. Future improvements in self-test sensitivity and reductions in the detection period would further reduce HIV incidence and the potential risks associated with replacing laboratory tests with self-tests.
| S-EPMC11912561 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States experience a disproportionate rate of diagnosis of HIV. Surveillance data demonstrate age-based disparities among MSM, with higher rates of diagnosis among MSM age ≤34 years nationally. Population size estimates within age group at the state level have not been available to determine rates for each state. We estimated the size of the MSM population in 5 age groups in each state and estimated the rate of prevalent HIV diagnoses in 2013 and new HIV diagnoses in 2014.MethodsWe used data from the General Social Survey, American Community Survey, and previously published estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate the population of MSM in 5 age groups at the state level. We combined these estimates with surveillance data to estimate age-stratified rates of prevalent diagnoses in 2013 and new diagnoses in 2014 in each state. We estimated standardized prevalence and diagnosis ratios comparing the Northeast, South, and West regions with the Midwest.ResultsRates of prevalent diagnoses increased with increasing age, and rates of new diagnoses were highest among younger age groups. In the United States, the new diagnosis rate among those age 18-24 years in 2014 was 1.4 per 100 MSM without a diagnosis. The highest diagnosis rates were observed among men age ≤34 years in the South.ConclusionsAge-stratified estimates of HIV prevalence and new diagnosis rates at the state level can inform public health prevention strategies and resource allocation.
| S-EPMC6016424 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe age-distribution of men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to change in the 'Treat-All' era as effective test-and-treat programs target key-populations. However, the nature of these changes and potential racial heterogeneities remain uncertain.MethodsThe PEARL model is an agent-based simulation of MSM in HIV care in the US, calibrated to data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD).ResultsPEARL projects a gradual decrease in median age of MSM at ART initiation from 36 to 31 years during 2010-2030, accompanied by changes in mortality among Black, White, and Hispanic MSM on ART by -8.4%, 42.4% and -19.6%. The median age of all MSM on ART is projected to increase from 45 to 47 years from 2010-2030, with the proportion of ART-users age ≥60y increasing from 6.7% to 28.0%. Almost half (49.7%) of White MSM ART-users are projected to age ≥60y by 2030, compared to 19.5% of Black and 17.2% of Hispanic MSM.ConclusionsThe overall age of US MSM in HIV care is expected to increase over the next decade, and differentially by race/ethnicity. As this population age, HIV programs should expand care for age-related causes of morbidity and mortality.
| S-EPMC8859821 | biostudies-literature